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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

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Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 53% chance of winning .

A Midwestern state in the heart of the Rust Belt and formerly a part of the “Blue Wall,” Michigan voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012. However, in 2016, Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by just 0.2%, contributing to his unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt that secured his Electoral College victory. Four years later, Joe Biden reclaimed Michigan for the Democrats with a 2.8% margin of victory, marking the slimmest margin for a victorious Democrat since the tightly contested 1960 election. Today, Michigan is considered a battleground state, leaning slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. It is expected to be pivotal in the 2024 election, sharing with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the longest active streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate—a record that dates back to its last vote for a losing candidate, John Kerry in 2004.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

53%

Donald Trump

47%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About undefined

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

50.62%

2,804,040

Donald Trump

47.84%

2,649,852

Jo Jorgensen

1.09%

60,381

Howie Hawkins

0.25%

13,718

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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