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Last Updated: Thursday, September 19 at 12:11 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 63% chance of winning .

A Midwestern state in the heart of the Rust Belt and formerly a part of the “Blue Wall,” Michigan voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012. However, in 2016, Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by just 0.2%, contributing to his unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt that secured his Electoral College victory. Four years later, Joe Biden reclaimed Michigan for the Democrats with a 2.8% margin of victory, marking the slimmest margin for a victorious Democrat since the tightly contested 1960 election. Today, Michigan is considered a battleground state, leaning slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. It is expected to be pivotal in the 2024 election, sharing with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the longest active streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate—a record that dates back to its last vote for a losing candidate, John Kerry in 2004.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Kamala Harris		63%
Donald Trump		37%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$128,096,870	$9,832,322	$92,102,327	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024
Kamala Harris	$95,946,483	$117,347,709	$189,960,709	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$128,096,870

Raised

$9,832,322

Spent

$92,102,327

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$95,946,483

Raised

$117,347,709

Spent

$189,960,709

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.