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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

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Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 70% chance of winning .

Minnesota is a slightly to moderately blue state and has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, as it has not voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon won the state in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite its history, Minnesota is not considered safely blue and remains a potential target for both parties in 2024. No Democratic presidential candidate has garnered over 55% of the vote since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In 2020, Joe Biden won Minnesota by a 7% margin, a significant increase from Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.5% margin in 2016. Minnesota is generally expected to lean Democratic in the 2024 presidential election.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

70%

Donald Trump

30%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About undefined

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

52.54%

1,717,077

Donald Trump

45.41%

1,484,065

Jo Jorgensen

1.07%

34,976

Howie Hawkins

0.31%

10,033

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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