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Last Updated: Thursday, September 19 at 12:11 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 79% chance of winning .

Minnesota is a slightly to moderately blue state and has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, as it has not voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon won the state in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite its history, Minnesota is not considered safely blue and remains a potential target for both parties in 2024. No Democratic presidential candidate has garnered over 55% of the vote since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In 2020, Joe Biden won Minnesota by a 7% margin, a significant increase from Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.5% margin in 2016. Minnesota is generally expected to lean Democratic in the 2024 presidential election.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Kamala Harris		79%
Donald Trump		21%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$128,096,870	$9,832,322	$92,102,327	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024
Kamala Harris	$95,946,483	$117,347,709	$189,960,709	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$128,096,870

Raised

$9,832,322

Spent

$92,102,327

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$95,946,483

Raised

$117,347,709

Spent

$189,960,709

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.