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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Arizona 4 House Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Greg Stanton has a 92% chance of winning Arizona 4.

CandidatePartyWin %

Greg Stanton

INCUMBENT

92%

Kelly Cooper

8%

Chance of winning Arizona 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Arizona 4

Cook PVI

D+2.3

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Greg Stanton

Cash on hand

$933,197

Raised

$1,084,526

Spent

$641,797

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Kelly Cooper

Cash on hand

$86,601

Raised

$287,012

Spent

$336,052

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Arizona 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Arizona House 04Vote %Total Votes

Greg Stanton

56.10%

148,941

Kelly Cooper

43.89%

116,521

Stephan Jones

0.01%

36

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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