Sponsored content

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

California 24 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Salud Carbajal has a >99% chance of winning California 24.

CandidatePartyWin %

Salud Carbajal

INCUMBENT

>99%

Thomas Cole

<1%

Chance of winning California 24 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 24

Cook PVI

D+12.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Salud Carbajal

Cash on hand

$2,809,627

Raised

$946,570

Spent

$724,820

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Thomas Cole

Cash on hand

$1,450

Raised

$1,450

Spent

$8,920

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 24. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 24Vote %Total Votes

Salud Carbajal

60.57%

159,019

Brad Allen

39.43%

103,533

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories