California 24 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Salud Carbajal has a >99% chance of winning California 24.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Salud Carbajal INCUMBENT		>99%
Thomas Cole		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning California 24 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 24

Cook PVI

D+12.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Salud Carbajal	$2,738,238	$1,221,575	$1,330,650	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Thomas Cole	-$37,349	$22,952	$80,221	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Salud Carbajal

Cash on hand

$2,738,238

Raised

$1,221,575

Spent

$1,330,650

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Thomas Cole

Cash on hand

-$37,349

Raised

$22,952

Spent

$80,221

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 24. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.