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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

California 27 House Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Michael Garcia has a 56% chance of winning California 27.

CandidatePartyWin %

Michael Garcia

INCUMBENT

56%

George Whitesides

44%

Chance of winning California 27 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 27

Cook PVI

D+4.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

George Whitesides

Cash on hand

$3,047,188

Raised

$2,730,746

Spent

$1,299,156

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Michael Garcia

Cash on hand

$1,754,767

Raised

$2,207,562

Spent

$2,000,651

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 27. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 27Vote %Total Votes

Mike Garcia

53.24%

104,624

Christy Smith

46.76%

91,892

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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