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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

California 45 House Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Michelle Steel has a 60% chance of winning California 45.

CandidatePartyWin %

Michelle Steel

INCUMBENT

60%

Derek Tran

40%

Chance of winning California 45 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 45

Cook PVI

D+2.1

Last Winner

Republican

5 polls

Oct 14 – 16

400 LV

Normington Petts/DCC...
48.0%

Tran

45.0%

Steel

+3 Tran

Sep 15 – 22

498 LV

Center for Urban Pol...
47.9%

Tran

46.1%

Steel

+2 Tran

Sep 15 – 20

600 LV

Tulchin Research/Der...
47.0%

Tran

45.0%

Steel

+2 Tran

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Michelle Steel

Cash on hand

$3,218,738

Raised

$2,066,600

Spent

$2,478,766

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Derek Tran

Cash on hand

$195,382

Raised

$823,476

Spent

$773,458

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 45. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 45Vote %Total Votes

Michelle Steel

52.41%

113,960

Jay F. Chen

47.59%

103,466

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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