| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Derek Tran | 56% | |
Michelle Steel INCUMBENT | 44% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning California 45 over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About California 45
Cook PVI
D+2.1
Last Winner
Republican
5 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 – 16 | 400 LV | Normington Petts/DCC... | 48.0%Tran 45.0%Steel | +3 Tran |
| Sep 15 – 22 | 498 LV | Center for Urban Pol... | 47.9%Tran 46.1%Steel | +2 Tran |
| Sep 15 – 20 | 600 LV | Tulchin Research/Der... | 47.0%Tran 45.0%Steel | +2 Tran |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michelle Steel | $2,636,113 | $3,902,613 | $7,262,324 | October 16, 2024 | |
Derek Tran | $630,237 | $4,008,523 | $4,370,651 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$2,636,113
Raised
$3,902,613
Spent
$7,262,324
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$630,237
Raised
$4,008,523
Spent
$4,370,651
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 45. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 California House 45 | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Michelle Steel | 52.41% | 113,960 |
Jay F. Chen | 47.59% | 103,466 |
2022 California House 45
Michelle Steel
Vote %
52.41%
Total Votes
113,960
2022 California House 45
Jay F. Chen
Vote %
47.59%
Total Votes
103,466
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
