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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Nebraska 2 House Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Don Bacon has a 56% chance of winning Nebraska 2.

CandidatePartyWin %

Don Bacon

INCUMBENT

56%

Tony Vargas

44%

Chance of winning Nebraska 2 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Nebraska 2

Cook PVI

D+0.2

Last Winner

Republican

9 polls

Oct 22 – 29

389 LV

YouGov/The Economist
50.0%

Vargas

46.0%

Bacon

+4 Vargas

Sep 25 – 27

663 LV

Siena College Poll/N...
48.0%

Vargas

44.0%

Bacon

+4 Vargas

Sep 21 – 26

749 LV

CNN/SSRS
50.0%

Vargas

44.0%

Bacon

+6 Vargas

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Don Bacon

Cash on hand

$1,727,525

Raised

$1,617,114

Spent

$1,752,692

Date

April 24, 2024

Candidate

Tony Vargas

Cash on hand

$1,641,255

Raised

$2,171,273

Spent

$819,341

Date

April 24, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Nebraska 2. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Nebraska House 02Vote %Total Votes

Don Bacon

51.33%

112,663

Tony Vargas

48.67%

106,807

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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