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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

New Mexico 1 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Melanie Stansbury has a 95% chance of winning New Mexico 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Melanie Stansbury

INCUMBENT

95%

Louie Sanchez

5%

Chance of winning New Mexico 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New Mexico 1

Cook PVI

D+4.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Melanie Stansbury

Cash on hand

$190,683

Raised

$565,906

Spent

$601,654

Date

May 15, 2024

Candidate

Louie Sanchez

Cash on hand

$27,898

Raised

$275

Spent

$448

Date

May 15, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Mexico 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New Mexico House 01Vote %Total Votes

Melanie Ann Stansbury

55.75%

156,462

Michelle Garcia Holmes

44.23%

124,151

Victoria L. Gonzales

0.02%

58

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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