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New Mexico 1 House Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Melanie Stansbury has a 93% chance of winning New Mexico 1.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Melanie Stansbury INCUMBENT		93%
Louie Sanchez		7%

Chance of winning New Mexico 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New Mexico 1

Cook PVI

D+4.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Melanie Stansbury	$190,683	$565,906	$601,654	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 15, 2024
Louie Sanchez	$27,898	$275	$448	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 15, 2024

Candidate

Melanie Stansbury

Cash on hand

$190,683

Raised

$565,906

Spent

$601,654

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 15, 2024

Candidate

Louie Sanchez

Cash on hand

$27,898

Raised

$275

Spent

$448

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 15, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Mexico 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.