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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

New York 4 House Forecast lean dem POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Laura Gillen has a 69% chance of winning New York 4.

CandidatePartyWin %

Laura Gillen

69%

Anthony D'Esposito

INCUMBENT

31%

Chance of winning New York 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 4

Cook PVI

D+5.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Anthony D'Esposito

Cash on hand

$1,554,101

Raised

$1,178,849

Spent

$1,151,653

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Laura Gillen

Cash on hand

$1,284,680

Raised

$1,703,457

Spent

$605,793

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 04Vote %Total Votes

Laura A. Gillen

48.20%

130,871

Anthony P. D'Esposito

51.80%

140,622

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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