New York 4 House Forecast lean dem POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Laura Gillen has a 75% chance of winning New York 4.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Laura Gillen		75%
Anthony D'Esposito INCUMBENT		25%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning New York 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 4

Cook PVI

D+5.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Laura Gillen	$1,746,510	$4,844,107	$4,381,070	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Anthony D'Esposito	$1,176,669	$1,859,306	$3,265,700	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Laura Gillen

Cash on hand

$1,746,510

Raised

$4,844,107

Spent

$4,381,070

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Anthony D'Esposito

Cash on hand

$1,176,669

Raised

$1,859,306

Spent

$3,265,700

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.