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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

North Carolina 1 House Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Laurie Buckhout has a 53% chance of winning North Carolina 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Laurie Buckhout

53%

Don Davis

INCUMBENT

47%

Chance of winning North Carolina 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About North Carolina 1

Cook PVI

R+0.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Don Davis

Cash on hand

$1,845,760

Raised

$888,079

Spent

$316,425

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Laurie Buckhout

Cash on hand

$239,479

Raised

$398,809

Spent

$1,667,980

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for North Carolina 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 North Carolina House 01Vote %Total Votes

Don Davis

52.37%

134,996

Sandy Smith

47.63%

122,780

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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