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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Virginia 11 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Gerald Connolly has a >99% chance of winning Virginia 11.

CandidatePartyWin %

Gerald Connolly

INCUMBENT

>99%

Michael Vanmeter

<1%

Chance of winning Virginia 11 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Virginia 11

Cook PVI

D+18.3

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Gerald Connolly

Cash on hand

$3,864,549

Raised

$1,048,425

Spent

$1,116,153

Date

May 29, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Virginia 11. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Virginia House 11Vote %Total Votes

Gerald E. "Gerry" Connolly

66.89%

193,190

James G. "Jim" Myles

33.11%

95,634

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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