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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Maryland Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a >99% chance of winning Maryland.

Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double digits since 1992, with Joe Biden of next-door neighbor Delaware doing so by 33 points in 2020. Although Trump carried 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden captured the six largest, running up Democratic margins in the Baltimore and Washington, DC, areas—which account for more than three-fourths of the state's vote—easily enough to carry the state. Maryland is expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

>99%

Donald Trump

<1%

Chance of winning Maryland over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maryland

Cook PVI

D+14.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

10

8 polls

Jun 20 – 21

635 RV

Public Policy Pollin...
56.0%

Biden

30.0%

Trump

+26 Biden

May 7 – 9

1,115 RV

Emerson College Poll...
56.0%

Biden

34.5%

Trump

+22 Biden

May 7 – 8

719 LV

Public Policy Pollin...
60.0%

Biden

32.0%

Trump

+28 Biden

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maryland. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Maryland President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

65.75%

1,985,023

Donald Trump

32.34%

976,414

Jo Jorgensen

1.11%

33,488

Howie Hawkins

0.52%

15,799

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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