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Maryland Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a >99% chance of winning Maryland.

Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double digits since 1992, with Joe Biden of next-door neighbor Delaware doing so by 33 points in 2020. Although Trump carried 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden captured the six largest, running up Democratic margins in the Baltimore and Washington, DC, areas—which account for more than three-fourths of the state's vote—easily enough to carry the state. Maryland is expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

>99%

Donald Trump

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Maryland over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maryland

Cook PVI

D+14.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

10

9 polls

Oct 7 – 31

400 LV

ActiVote
63.5%

Harris

36.5%

Trump

+27 Harris

Oct 18 – 23

1,000 RV

University of Maryla...
59.0%

Harris

34.0%

Trump

+25 Harris

Oct 20 – 22

865 LV

Emerson College Poll...
64.0%

Harris

34.4%

Trump

+30 Harris

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maryland. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Maryland President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

65.75%

1,985,023

Donald Trump

32.34%

976,414

Jo Jorgensen

1.11%

33,488

Howie Hawkins

0.52%

15,799

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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