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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Mississippi Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 98% chance of winning Mississippi.

Like many of its socially conservative Deep South neighbors, Mississippi has shifted heavily Republican over the last five decades, after being a stronghold for the Democratic Party since its founding. Although Mississippi has recently voted to the left of its bordering states—largely due to its significant African-American minority—it remains firmly within the Bible Belt. The state has not been won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter, a fellow Southerner, narrowly succeeded in 1976, and it hasn't been competitive since Bill Clinton from neighboring Arkansas came within five points of winning it in 1996. Consequently, Mississippi is expected to be safely Republican in the 2024 presidential election.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

98%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

2%

Chance of winning Mississippi over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Mississippi

Cook PVI

R+11.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

6

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Mississippi. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Mississippi President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

57.60%

756,764

Joe Biden

41.06%

539,398

Jo Jorgensen

0.61%

8,026

Kanye West

0.28%

3,657

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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