Mississippi Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Mississippi.

Like many of its socially conservative Deep South neighbors, Mississippi has shifted heavily Republican over the last five decades, after being a stronghold for the Democratic Party since its founding. Although Mississippi has recently voted to the left of its bordering states—largely due to its significant African-American minority—it remains firmly within the Bible Belt. The state has not been won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter, a fellow Southerner, narrowly succeeded in 1976, and it hasn't been competitive since Bill Clinton from neighboring Arkansas came within five points of winning it in 1996. Consequently, Mississippi is expected to be safely Republican in the 2024 presidential election.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		>99%
Kamala Harris		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Mississippi over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Mississippi

Cook PVI

R+11.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kamala Harris	$118,825,510	$504,663,253	$880,198,347	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Donald Trump	$36,214,682	$54,519,239	$354,932,583	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Mississippi. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.