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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

West Virginia Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning West Virginia.

It’s hard to believe that West Virginia was considered a reliable Democratic stronghold as recently as 1996, with Democrats winning 14 of 17 presidential elections leading up to Bill Clinton’s re-election. After shifting to vote for George W. Bush by 6% in 2000, Republicans have carried West Virginia by double digits in every election since. Donald Trump won West Virginia with 68.5% of the vote in 2016, his largest share in any state, and his 39% margin in 2020 was his second highest, behind only Wyoming. Ranking as the second whitest, lowest in educational attainment, the third highest in proportion of seniors, and the eighth most rural state in the nation, these factors all contribute to the expected continued Republican dominance in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

<1%

Chance of winning West Virginia over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About West Virginia

Cook PVI

R+22.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

4

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for West Virginia. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 West Virginia President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

68.63%

545,382

Joe Biden

29.70%

235,984

Jo Jorgensen

1.34%

10,687

Howie Hawkins

0.33%

2,599

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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