West Virginia Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning West Virginia.

It’s hard to believe that West Virginia was considered a reliable Democratic stronghold as recently as 1996, with Democrats winning 14 of 17 presidential elections leading up to Bill Clinton’s re-election. After shifting to vote for George W. Bush by 6% in 2000, Republicans have carried West Virginia by double digits in every election since. Donald Trump won West Virginia with 68.5% of the vote in 2016, his largest share in any state, and his 39% margin in 2020 was his second highest, behind only Wyoming. Ranking as the second whitest, lowest in educational attainment, the third highest in proportion of seniors, and the eighth most rural state in the nation, these factors all contribute to the expected continued Republican dominance in 2024.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		>99%
Kamala Harris		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning West Virginia over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About West Virginia

Cook PVI

R+22.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kamala Harris	$118,825,510	$504,663,253	$880,198,347	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Donald Trump	$36,214,682	$54,519,239	$354,932,583	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for West Virginia. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.