Sponsored content

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Maryland Senate Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Angela Alsobrooks has a >99% chance of winning Maryland.

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin is not seeking re-election, opening up a seat in deeply blue Maryland, one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation. Joe Biden carried Maryland by 33% in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats currently hold both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and all statewide offices. However, the race is expected to become significantly more competitive with the entry of former Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who was one of America’s most popular governors, leaving office with an approval rating near 80% after winning re-election in 2018 by 12%. Despite Hogan's popularity, Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is fundamentally favored to hold this Democratic seat. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Maryland since 1980. The decline of split-ticket voting in U.S. Senate races, combined with the political dominance of the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs, which have contributed to double-digit Democratic presidential victories since 1988, is expected to favor the Democratic nominee.

CandidatePartyWin %

Angela Alsobrooks

>99%

Larry Hogan

<1%

Chance of winning Maryland Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maryland

Cook PVI

D+14.0

Last Winner

Democrat

18 polls

Nov 2 – 4

419 LV

Concord Public Opini...
52.0%

Alsobrooks

38.0%

Hogan

+14 Alsobrooks

Oct 29 – 31

510 LV

Chism Strategies
48.3%

Alsobrooks

39.7%

Hogan

+9 Alsobrooks

Oct 8 – 31

400 LV

ActiVote
56.6%

Alsobrooks

43.4%

Hogan

+13 Alsobrooks

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Angela Alsobrooks

Cash on hand

$1,909,104

Raised

$6,352,939

Spent

$5,875,228

Date

April 24, 2024

Candidate

Larry Hogan

Cash on hand

$1,784,807

Raised

$1,067,510

Spent

$1,289,905

Date

April 24, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maryland. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Maryland Senate Vote %Total Votes

Chris Van Hollen

65.86%

1,316,897

Chris Chaffee

34.12%

682,293

Scottie Griffin

0.02%

334

Andrew J. Wildman

0.00%

89

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories