Maryland Senate Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Saturday, September 28 at 6:41 PM EDT

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin is not seeking re-election, opening up a seat in deeply blue Maryland, one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation. Joe Biden carried Maryland by 33% in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats currently hold both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and all statewide offices. However, the race is expected to become significantly more competitive with the entry of former Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who was one of America’s most popular governors, leaving office with an approval rating near 80% after winning re-election in 2018 by 12%. Despite Hogan's popularity, Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is fundamentally favored to hold this Democratic seat. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Maryland since 1980. The decline of split-ticket voting in U.S. Senate races, combined with the political dominance of the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs, which have contributed to double-digit Democratic presidential victories since 1988, is expected to favor the Democratic nominee.