This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Ohio Senate Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Incumbent third-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing an uphill battle for a fourth term in Ohio, a state that Donald Trump won by more than 8 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. Given the fundamental advantage Republicans have on the 2024 Senate map, Brown's re-election is considered crucial for Democrats to retain their majority. Bernie Moreno, a former car dealer who secured the Republican nomination largely due to Trump's endorsement, was widely considered the GOP's weakest general election candidate against Brown. Although early polls all favor Brown, Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now viewed as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices, as well as majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. In an open Senate race in 2022, Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance defeated Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by 6%, despite trailing in most polls into October of that cycle. Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (now governor), and has won re-election in 2012 and 2018, most recently by 7%. In the 2012 general election, Brown outperformed Barack Obama by 3%, and will likely need to exceed Biden's performance by a much greater margin to secure re-election in 2024.