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California 22 House Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that David Valadao has a 64% chance of winning California 22.

CandidatePartyWin %

David Valadao

INCUMBENT

64%

Rudy Salas

36%

Chance of winning California 22 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 22

Cook PVI

D+5.1

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

David Valadao

Cash on hand

$1,640,960

Raised

$731,755

Spent

$1,223,542

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Rudy Salas

Cash on hand

$754,435

Raised

$1,241,317

Spent

$1,080,988

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 22. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 22Vote %Total Votes

David G. Valadao

51.52%

52,993

Rudy Salas

48.48%

49,859

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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