Nevada 4 House Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Steven Horsford has a 90% chance of winning Nevada 4.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Steven Horsford INCUMBENT		90%
John Lee		10%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Nevada 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Nevada 4

Cook PVI

D+2.6

Last Winner

Democrat

View Polling Average

Nevada 4 House polls, Horsford vs. Lee

2 polls

Field Dates	Sample	Pollster	Results	Topline
Aug 26 – 29	281 LV	Emerson College Poll...	45.7% Horsford 36.1% Lee	+10 Horsford
Aug 4 – 6	234 LV	Decipher Ai	43.2% Horsford 38.9% Lee	+4 Horsford

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Steven Horsford	$160,111	$2,642,094	$5,072,452	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
John Lee	$98,931	$578,535	$1,553,604	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Steven Horsford

Cash on hand

$160,111

Raised

$2,642,094

Spent

$5,072,452

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

John Lee

Cash on hand

$98,931

Raised

$578,535

Spent

$1,553,604

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Nevada 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.