| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Nick Lalota INCUMBENT | 79% | |
John Avlon | 21% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning New York 1 over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About New York 1
Cook PVI
R+3.9
Last Winner
Republican
3 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 – 18 | 526 LV | Siena College Poll/N... | 47.0%LaLota 44.0%Avlon | +3 LaLota |
| Sep 30 – Oct 2 | 500 LV | Cygnal / Congression... | 49.2%LaLota 39.6%Avlon | +10 LaLota |
| Sep 27 – 30 | 400 LV | Fabrizio Lee/Nick La... | 50.0%LaLota 42.0%Avlon | +8 LaLota |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick Lalota | $1,021,939 | $1,146,358 | $3,092,441 | October 16, 2024 | |
John Avlon | $931,853 | $3,996,134 | $3,764,404 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$1,021,939
Raised
$1,146,358
Spent
$3,092,441
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$931,853
Raised
$3,996,134
Spent
$3,764,404
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 New York House 01 | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Nicholas J. LaLota | 55.51% | 177,040 |
Bridget Fleming | 44.49% | 141,907 |
2022 New York House 01
Nicholas J. LaLota
Vote %
55.51%
Total Votes
177,040
2022 New York House 01
Bridget Fleming
Vote %
44.49%
Total Votes
141,907
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
