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New York 17 House Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Mondaire Jones has a 53% chance of winning New York 17.

CandidatePartyWin %

Mondaire Jones

53%

Mike Lawler

INCUMBENT

47%

Chance of winning New York 17 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 17

Cook PVI

D+2.8

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mondaire Jones

Cash on hand

$3,607,135

Raised

$3,676,172

Spent

$1,163,799

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Mike Lawler

Cash on hand

$3,317,086

Raised

$2,022,563

Spent

$1,658,297

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 17. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 17Vote %Total Votes

Sean Patrick Maloney

49.68%

141,730

Michael V. Lawler

50.32%

143,550

+ More Elections

Featured Races

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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