| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Josh Riley | 60% | |
Marc Molinaro INCUMBENT | 40% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning New York 19 over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About New York 19
Cook PVI
R+0.5
Last Winner
Republican
4 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 – 17 | 561 LV | SurveyUSA/NewsChanne... | 46.0%Riley 42.0%Molinaro | +4 Riley |
| Oct 10 – 14 | 801 LV | Garin-Hart-Yang Rese... | 48.0%Riley 45.0%Molinaro | +3 Riley |
| Sep 6 – 13 | 461 LV | RMG Research/U.S. Te... | 42.0%Riley 39.0%Molinaro | +3 Riley |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Riley | $1,107,774 | $7,291,163 | $7,669,786 | October 16, 2024 | |
Marc Molinaro | $680,273 | $2,274,971 | $4,501,694 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$1,107,774
Raised
$7,291,163
Spent
$7,669,786
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$680,273
Raised
$2,274,971
Spent
$4,501,694
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 19. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 New York House 19 | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Marcus Molinaro | 37.37% | 156,842 |
Josh Riley | 33.72% | 141,509 |
Pat Ryan | 16.20% | 67,996 |
Marcus Molinaro | 12.71% | 53,321 |
2022 New York House 19
Marcus Molinaro
Vote %
37.37%
Total Votes
156,842
2022 New York House 19
Josh Riley
Vote %
33.72%
Total Votes
141,509
2022 New York House 19
Pat Ryan
Vote %
16.20%
Total Votes
67,996
2022 New York House 19
Marcus Molinaro
Vote %
12.71%
Total Votes
53,321
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
