Pennsylvania Senate polls, McCormick vs. Casey
Casey has a 5.4% lead based on 21 polls.
May 19, 2024
Casey
46.2%
McCormick
40.8%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
A bit of background... The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race is expected to be one of the most closely watched contests of the election cycle. Analysts expect a highly competitive race, although Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. has historically been a strong candidate. Pennsylvania's diverse electorate, with a mix of urban and rural voters, makes it a key swing state. The outcome of this race could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate.
21 polls
Latest Poll: Sun, May 19, 8:20 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 – May 10 | 1,023 LV | New York Times/Siena... | 46.0%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +5 Casey |
| Apr 25 – May 1 | 1,398 LV | Fabrizio Ward/Impact... | 48.0%Casey 44.0%McCormick | +4 Casey |
| Apr 26 – 30 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 46.2%Casey 42.1%McCormick | +4 Casey |
| Apr 20 – 26 | 1,306 RV | YouGov/CBS News | 46.0%Casey 39.0%McCormick | +7 Casey |
| Apr 16 – 26 | 417 RV | Muhlenberg College | 45.0%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +4 Casey |
| Mar 30 – Apr 4 | 600 RV | Independent Center/B... | 45.0%Casey 38.0%McCormick | +7 Casey |
| Mar 21 – Apr 1 | 870 RV | Franklin & Marshall ... | 46.0%Casey 39.0%McCormick | +7 Casey |
| Mar 23 – 27 | 800 RV | Bullfinch Group/Comm... | 47.0%Casey 30.0%McCormick | +17 Casey |
| Mar 11 – 14 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 44.8%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +4 Casey |
| Feb 27 – Mar 8 | 450 LV | Susquehanna Polling ... | 48.0%Casey 42.0%McCormick | +6 Casey |
+ More Polls
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Bob Casey
Bob Casey is an American attorney and politician serving as the senior United States Senator from Pennsylvania, a position he has held since 2007. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Prior to his tenure in the Senate, Casey served as Pennsylvania State Treasurer and Pennsylvania Auditor General. He is known for his focus on issues regarding health care, children's welfare, and infrastructure.
David McCormick
David McCormick is an American businessman and former government official. He is a Hassler Veteran in Residence for Economics and National Security at the Hoover Institution and was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge fund. He has served in the U.S. Treasury Department under George W. Bush's administration as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. Prior to his governmental roles, McCormick was a faculty member at West Point, where he taught economics. He is a veteran, having served in the U.S. Army as a captain. McCormick received his Ph.D. in engineering from Princeton University.
